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Historical Patterns





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Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018 , Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens

Stock Markets during the second World War
"Then in May 1942, just before the United States’ military fortunes in the Pacific improved, in the midst of the gloom and the bargains and at the point of maximum bearishness, the U.S. stock market made a bottom for the ages."
Wealth, War & Wisdom, 2008 , Barton Biggs

Memorable Bubble and Crashes: Chapter 1, The dotocom stars of the late 1990s
With equity markets currently very quiet, and most investors having lost interest in stocks, it's the perfect time to vizualise some of the most spectacular bubbles and crashes of the past twenty years.
Investments Office, September 2012 , Ronald Weber

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 2
The Nasdaq of the late 1990s and the Nikkei ex- and post-1980s
Investments Office, September 2012 , Ronald Weber

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 3
Banks, financials and the commercial paper market around the crisis of 2008.
Investments Office, 2012 , Ronald Weber

Memorable Bubbles: Chapter 4
China, Saudi Arabia and Petrochina around their tipping points
Investments Office, September 2012 , Ronald Weber

War and Peace: a tale of two economies
Nominal and real return on assets classes for Japan and Switzerland over the past 100 years.
Investments Office , Ronald Weber

Destroyed in Seconds
To my knowledge, there has NEVER before been a case (except in war or natural disaster) when a legitimate business has been destroyed so quickly — as what Knight Capital Group (KCG) experienced.
Daily Speculations, August 3, 2012 , Rocky Humbert

"Have a Break, have a ...National Currency: When do Monetary Unions Fall Apart?" and "Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions"
In light of the current Euro crisis, we introduce two academic studies on the topic of currency unions and dissolutions in recent history. Althoug the countries mentioned are not comparable to Spain or Greece today, the authors do make some interesting observations.
Andrew Rose, Volker Nitsch, Working Papers, 2007 and 2004

How Good An Indicator Was "The Death of Equities" Cover
In his monthly outlook for August, famous bond investor Bill Gross declared that "The cult of equity is dying." Naturally, Bill Gross' comments brought up memories of the famous "The Death of Equities" BusinessWeek cover from 1979, and what a good buying opportunity that was for US equities.
Bespoke Investment Group, August 1, 2012