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The Berenberg Capital Markets Outlook
Wealth and Asset Management


Concise overview of capital markets



  • Economic slowdown: Europe should be prepared for a gruelling winter.
  • Fresh momentum in the spring if the trade dispute eases and a hard Brexit is avoided.
  • The US Federal Reserve will soon pause on raising interest rates.



  • Government bonds can hardly be expected to yield positive income in 2019.
  • Still no recovery in the segment of corporate and high-yield bonds, tough start to the year expected.
  • We are still keeping the duration short; we are underweighting bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.


Alternative investments / commodities

  • Gold stands to benefit from the expected end of USD strength and higher physical demand in major buying countries.
  • The price of oil (Brent crude) will probably stabilise due to the OPEC+ production cut and further production outages.
  • Supported by low inventory levels, industrial metal prices are expected to reverse trend in the course of 2019.



  • The EUR/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the level of 1.14; the possible Fed pause in raising interest rates is weighing down the USD, while the euro is under pressure from Italy and Brexit.
  • The British pound mirrors the Brexit developments; the recent drop was caused by worries about the parliamentary vote.
  • The euro/Swiss franc rate is approaching its low for the year of 1.12; the franc remains in demand as a safe haven.


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The Berenberg Capital Markets Outlook


Berenberg, Horizon handout, January 2019