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Forecasting the Improbable
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Typically, when thinking up extreme events, the practitioner draws from past experience or historical events that have had a material impact on financial markets. (...) Things become more complicated when the event in question has never occurred in the past or occurred such a long time ago that there is little material to recollect its impact.
Lobnek Wealth Management, Newsletter, April 2012 , Altug Ulkumen, CFA, Partner & Chief Investment Officer
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The Economic Impact of a Lone Business Jet
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In those times of private-aviation bashing, here is a very thorough description of the positive economic impact and multiplication-effect related to a single business jet.
Jeremy Cox, January 2012
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The Rise of Consumption Equality
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It used to be so cool to be wealthy (...) Now it's hard to swing a cat without hitting yet another diatribe against income inequality. People sleep in tents to protest that others are too damn wealthy.
WSJ, January 03, 2012 , Andy Kessler
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7 Billion Reasons Malthus Was Wrong
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""You’d think after 200 years, folks would eventually say, “That Malthus guy? Kind of wrong.” Yet, with the (projected) birth today of the world’s 7 billionth occupant, there’s no shortage of media hand-wringing about the dim prospects of our world from here."
Forbes, 31/10/2011 , Lara Hoffmans
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There will be Oil
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For decades, advocates of 'peak oil' have been predicting a crisis in energy supplies. They've been wrong at every turn, says Daniel Yergin.
WSJ, December 2011
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The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics
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"The economy is a marvel of complexity. Yet no one designed it and no one runs it."
Harvard Business Press; September 14, 2007 , Eric Beinhocker
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The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves
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"The rich have got richer, but the poor have done even better."
Harper Perennial; Reprint edition (June 7, 2011) , Matt Ridley
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The U.S. Content of “Made in China”
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Although globalization is widely recognized these days, the U.S. economy actually remains relatively
closed. The vast majority of goods and services sold in the United States is produced here. In 2010,
imports were about 16% of U.S. GDP. Imports from China amounted to 2.5% of GDP.
FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011-25 August 8, 2011 , Federal Reserve Board of San Fransisco, Galina Hale and Bart Hobijin
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Gold and Economic Freedom
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"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process."
Ayn Rand, Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal , Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Bubble Trouble: Can a Law Describe Bubbles and Crashes in Financial Markets?
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When a stock market rises unsustainably, it can create a financial bubble that sooner or later will burst.
Tobias Preis and H Eugene Stanley examine whether concepts from physics can be used to create a
law describing exactly how such crashes occur.
Physics World 24[5], 29-32 (May 2011). , H. Eugene Stanley
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