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This article analyzes the methodology of modeling in the physical sciences and in finance. Whereas hobbyists’ models aim for realistic resemblance to the object of the model, physics models aim for accurate divination. Financial models, the article argues, can at best aim to extrapolate or interpolate from the known prices of liquid securities to the unknown values of illiquid ones. Financial models are therefore best regarded as a collection of mathematically consistent, parallel “thought universes,” each of which will always be far too simple to resemble the real financial world, but whose exploration as a whole can nevertheless provide valuable insight.
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