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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations



Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics




 articles 1-10 / 190   page 1 of 19 »  
Trade Rebound vs. USD Shortage
"The world has been suffering from a shortage of USD for 25 months in a row, which is the longest period ever, since the end of the Gold Standard in 1971. This might explain the USD’s surprizing strength during the last two years and the fact that world trade has completely flattened over the period."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, December 2019 , Didier Darcet

The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go
"It was never accounted for how that miracle wasn’t all that miraculous; it was bought and paid for by an equally rapid advance in global eurodollars. Take away the “dollars” and the growth suddenly disappears. But that’s not in the textbooks."
Alhambra Investment Partners, October 18th, 2019 , Jeffrey P. Snider

China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn
"The PBOC cannot gain headway because, contrary to Western imagination, Chinese technocrats are not actually patient geniuses playing some hidden long game at the rest of the world’s expense. They are hanging on merely hoping something goes right."
Alhambra Investment Partners, October 16th, 2019 , Jeffrey P. Snider

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself
Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than what can be a misleading indicator.
Aviva Investors, 30 September 2019 , Mark Robertson

Financial Follies: Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory in the Era of Quantitative Easing and Zero or Negative Interest Rates
"Conventional economic wisdom is that monetary policy has done the heavy lifting in terms of reviving economic growth. Now that policy rates are low or negative and balance sheets have expanded, all we need is some fiscal stimulus to keep an economy from turning down into recession."
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, October 7 2019 , Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA

10 Year Treasury Yields at Zero, and Why Fiscal Stimulus and Modern Monetary Theory are Financial Follies
Those of us of a certain age can remember watching Saturday afternoon black and white reruns of Laurel and Hardy films. Invariably, after a series of laughable misunderstandings and comic mistakes Hardy would lament to sidekick Laurel, “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into!” Well, today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) reminds me of the well-meaning, but often bumbling Laurel, while pompous and stubborn Hardy is today’s bond market.
Brandywine Global, Around the Curve, September 30 2019 , Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA

Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit.
"An “expensive” cash favors the rentier at the expense of the entrepreneur, and vice versa. The consequence is the emergence of a two-fold competition across major economic and monetary zones, on the cash side and on the equity risk side."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2019 , Didier Darcet

Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
Why an inverted yield curve isn’t a hair trigger for stocks.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 08/26/2019 , Luke Puetz

Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol

Time is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments, July 2019 , Paul Smillie, Senior Investment Analyst






Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks




Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch


Current Account


Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy


Gloom and Doom

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt

Interest Rates


Market Timing


Monetary Policy

Real Estate


Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk


Tail Risk


Tipping Point
Trade Balance