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Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit.
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"An “expensive” cash favors the rentier at the expense of the entrepreneur, and vice versa.
The consequence is the emergence of a two-fold competition across major economic and monetary zones, on the cash side and on the equity risk side."
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2019 , Didier Darcet
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Thoughts on Yield Curve Inversion
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Why an inverted yield curve isn’t a hair trigger for stocks.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 08/26/2019 , Luke Puetz
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Forecasting Current-Quarter U.S. Exports Using Satellite Data
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Second Quarter 2018 , Jun Nie and Amy Oksol
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Quick Hit: Digging Into US and European Returns
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A look at recent market returns on a geographical basis—and how sector weights may skew your view of them.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 07/17/2019 , Editorial Staff
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Inflation Expectations and Actual Inflation: 1998 - 2018
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Chart excerpt from the article "Has the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations Changed in the United States during the Past Decade?"
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, First Quarter 2018 , Taeyoung Doh and Amy Oksol
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Time is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
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Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments, July 2019 , Paul Smillie, Senior Investment Analyst
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Market expectations for policy rates have shifted dramatically
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FOMC policy expectations (OIS)
Aviva Investors, What our House View means for asset allocation and portfolio construction, July 2019 , David Nowakowski
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Not all households have reduced debt levels
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Ratio of household debt to disposable income
Aviva Investors, The five key themes and risks our House View team expect to drive financial markets, July 2019 , Stewart Robertson
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Target Balances in the Euro zone.
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Cumulated German surplus with the rest of the Euro zone.
Institut des Libertés, Et voila! L’Allemagne va mal, July 1, 2019 , Charles Gave
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The eurozone’s Japanification - more to come
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With the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already in the thick of it, which means rates are likely to remain lower for longer and every new crisis or recession will bring the bloc closer to more Japanification.
ING, 24th June 2019 , Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist ING Germany; Inga Fechner, Economist, Germany, Austria
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