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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

A Disappearing act: impact of tighter financial conditions
Bonds, Equity, Global, Market Timing, Volatility, Early Warning Indicator

Excerpts:

 

“Plentiful money at near-zero cost has been the mood music of markets since the financial crisis. the result of this government-sponsored largesse? suppressed volatility, greater risk taking and a potential misallocation of capital. What happens to markets when financial conditions tighten and risks of a liquidity disappearing act pick up?”


“the US federal reserve is unlikely to raise rates until 2015 at the earliest, we believe, but volatility is set to rise from trough levels as the quantity of its stimulus wanes. This means portfolios today are more risky than they appear. Investors have to weigh the risk of getting caught out versus the risk of leaving the party too soon. Yet going against the crowd is difficult.”


 

Excerpts-BlackRock Investment Institute, May 2014

28.05.2014


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield