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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

Crouching Tigers
For a region whose business model - broadly speaking - relies on buying ever more expensive materials to sell goods to a slowing world, Asia's earnings forecasts look surprisingly perky.

 

(...)

 

"Chinese state-owned  enterprises generated aggregate pre-tax year-on-year growth of just 1.5 per cent in the first five months. Even striiping out oil refiners - which bear the cost of Beijing's fuel subsidies - leaves the number well below 2007's 30 per cent growth rate.

 

Much of the pain comes from margin contraction and reflects the region's deteriorating terms of trade (the price of exports, relative to imports). So far this year commodity costs have risen 23 times faster than export prices (...)."

 

(...)

 

"Borrowing costs, which are likely to rise further as the region's central banks attempt to stem the surge in inflation, will make an ever bigger dent in the bottom line of big borrowers, among them the Indian companies making acqusitions overseas and Chinese real estate companies."

 

 

Financial Times, July 17 2008

18.07.2008


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield