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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

Dates, Credit and Inflation
"Date prices have taken a quantum leap and this delicious and nutritious staple is now costlier by about 1,000 percent. Farmers and date traders in Madina predict an imminent crisis in the business." Meanwhile...in the UAE: "Loans to individuals in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter surged almost 40 percent in 2007. They have almost doubled over the last four years, during which time oil prices have surged, helping drive economic growth and borrowing."

 

 

Prices of dates surge

 

 MADINA – Date prices have taken a quantum leap and this delicious and nutritious staple is now costlier by about 1,000 percent. Farmers and date traders in Madina predict an imminent crisis in the business. Paucity of supply, rigging and adoption of fraudulent business mechanism are directly contributing to the increase in prices, date traders said.
Besides, scores of expatriate workers have left the market. Lack of a competent authority to supervise the business is another factor that is responsible for the steep hike in date prices, they said. The wages of workers in date markets have already been raised and now it is becoming difficult to hire workers at low wages, they said.


Rotana, premium Rotana, Luna, Helya, Rabi’a dates have become costlier as the market awaits delivery of other types of dates like Helwa, Suwaidah and Maktoumi. Dealers were reluctant to speculate on their prices under current conditions, Okaz Arabic daily said. “Expatriate workers are starting to flex their muscle and to dictate conditions which, in the view of Saudi investors, do not match the profits they make,” said Abdou Al-Maghzoui, a trader.
“Unfortunately, there are no Saudi farmers and most of those harvesting the season’s fruits are foreigners. When they perceived their dominance of the market, they took advantage by raising their seasonal wages by 150%. The mechanism of picking the fruits requires extensive knowledge and good experience; otherwise the harvest could be ruined,” he added.


Nonetheless, it is inconceivable for someone who was making SR1,500 per month last year to ask for SR4,000 this year,” he said. Al-Maghzoui added that those who respond to these demands have large financial abilities and own very large farms and payment of SR12,000 per season per worker will not make a dent in their pockets. Most of these farm owners have their own workers and do not have to worry about finding additional labor, he said.
“We urge the authorities to allow temporary labor into the country as it is difficult for an investor to bring in labor to work only for nine months,” he said.

 

Saudi Gazette report

 

Article Link


UAE consumer loans surge to $13.2bn

Published Date: June 22, 2008

 

"DUBAI: Consumer loans in the United Arab Emirates rose around 5 billion dirhams ($1.36 billion) in the first quarter of 2008 from the end of last year, as the second-largest Arab economy struggles to contain inflation.

 

Central Bank data showed yesterday that consumer loans reached 48.41 billion dirhams in the first three months of the year from 43.46 billion at the end of last year, but did not give a comparative figure for the first quarter of last year.

Total bank assets advanced to 1.34 trillion dirhams in the first quarter, up from 1.23 trillion at the end of last year, the central bank said on its website.

 

Loans to individuals in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter surged almost 40 percent in 2007. They have almost doubled over the last four years, during which time oil prices have surged, helping drive economic growth and borrowing.

Like its Gulf Arab peers-bar Kuwait-the UAE pegs its dirham to the greenback, forcing it to track US monetary policy at a time when the US Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates while its economy is booming, fuelling inflation. United Arab Emirates inflation jumped to 11.1 percent in 2007, the highest for at least 20 years, steered by soaring rents."

 

Reuters

 

Saudi Gazette, Reuters, June 22, 2008

22.06.2008


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield