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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

Greenspan And Gold
"We have long believed that Fed Chairman Greenspan follows the gold price. During most of his 18-year tenure at the Fed, the gold price has been relatively well-behaved, and indeed spent a long time trading quietly between US$350-400/oz."

"In his last Press briefing (in 1987), Greenspan hinted that the US economy required continuing mild inflation, say circa 2%, and consequently a similar devaluation of the US dollar against gold. Monetary error between 1997 and 2002 caused the gold price to plunge and delivered a sharp dose of monetary deflation that hit US dollar debtors especially hard, e.g. Asia, Russia and Enron.

 

The monetary boost post-9/11 restored the gold price to its 2% trend and helped revitalise the American economy. If Fed policy does ‘target’ gold at levels close to US$500/oz. around early 2006, this would be consistent with Greenspan’s original intentions. Sharply higher or sharply lower nominal gold prices stand as a warning, respectively,of monetary inflation and monetary deflation. Stock markets like neither, and every past stock market crash can be categorised as either a crisis of monetary deflation or a crisis of monetary inflation."

 

 

Crossborder Capital-Michael Howell

30.05.2007


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
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Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
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PIIGS
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Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield