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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

Hank And Ben; Al And Sue
"Is a US/Asian currency deal being stitched together ? the creation of an ‘Asian Dollar’ would polarise the World economy into two rival groupings"

Hello … We’re Over Here!


We Europeans are having it especially tough. Not only have most European currencies soared against the Japanese Yen, squeezing the competitiveness of our already frail manufacturing businesses, but no one else seems to be listening to our pleas. It’s a bit like being stuck in the corner of a Hollywood drinks party. You’re busting to say something, but Tom Cruise, Angelina Jolie and Scarlett Johansson keep turning their backs. And Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have already cornered the canapés and are on the other side of the room, laughing and joking with Zhou Xiaochuan and Jin Renqing of China, and Japan’s Koji Omi and Toshihiko Fukui – Asia’s key Finance Ministers and Central Bankers. 

 

Is a US/Asian currency deal being stitched together ?

 

(...) Thus, the creation of an ‘Asian Dollar’ would polarise the World economy into two rival groupings: (1) a broad US dollar bloc comprising the US, the key oil producers, Latin America, China, India and most Asian emerging economies; and (2) a Euro bloc consisting of the existing Euro members, plus Switzerland, Russia, the geographical fringe of Europe and probably most of Africa.

 

This arrangement need not be de jure, only de facto. However, a key question regards what happens to the two main alternative currencies: the Japanese Yen and British pound? Logically, they should join with their respective geographic and trade partners. Thus, the Yen should join the US dollar bloc and sterling should team up with the Euro bloc, but at what rate?

 

Link to CrossBorder Capital's website

 

 

Crossborder Capital-Michael Howell

20.04.2007


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield