Macro Observations

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

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The Long March of the Euro Communist Economies

"The media all over the world, but especially in France, are presenting the crisis as a financial one, as if the governments and the politicians have no responsibility. This crisis is in fact very typical of a communist system arriving at the end of its ability to borrow and make the productive system service the debt it has accumulated, simply because the productive sector is going bust."
GaveKal Five Corners, Volume 12, Issue 24, Monday, December 12, 2011 , Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave, Francois Chauchat

Asset Price Booms and Current Account Deficits

FRBSF Economic Letter, December 5, 2011 , Paul Bergin

People's Bank of China versus the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan.

What do these three central banks have in common?
Investments Office, October 2011

Christine Lagarde's turncoat:

"On July 23rd, acting then a France's finance minister, she congratulated herself (sic) for the good results of French banks at the latest stress tests. On August 27th, acting now as IMF president, she called for "substantial" and mandatory recapitalisation to bolster European banks' balance sheets without excluding those same French banks."
Cazenove Capital Management , European Alpha Absolute Return Fund Commentary, September 2011, Lionel Rayon

“How many years of US corn production would the dollar reserves of China buy?”

The End of the World, Part 1 , John Mauldin, August 27, 2011

The most efficient way to fund fiscal expenditure

In 1963, President Kennedy ordered the issuance of government paper money, with the same design as the Federal Reserve Notes, but entitled "United States Note" (instead of "Federal Reserve Note") and bearing only the seal of the US Treasury (therefore omitting the seal of the Federal Reserve system).
New Paradigm in Macroeconomics , Richard A. Werner, 2005

Common Sense: Aftershock to Economy Has a Precedent That Holds Lessons

Recent events bear an intriguing resemblance to 1937-38, and the recession within a Depression, which galvanized policy makers who had grown complacent about the recovery.
The New York Times, August 12, 2011 , James B. Stewart

So Far, This Time Is Different

"The cycle in developed economies has proved, so far, to be different from cycles in the past 50 years. That hints that those other cycles may not be a very useful guide for what lies ahead. In particular, this cycle may end differently."
Morgan Stanley Research Asia/pacific , Downunder Daily, June 10, 2011

Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever

The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.
Jeremy Grantham , GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011

Inflation and Gold, hedging the unexpected?

Whilst Gold clearly does a better job of hedging inflation surprises over a 5-year horizon, the ability of Gold to hedge is partial at best and the available evidence suggests that the Gold price, in itself, is also a very poor predictor of future inflation trends.
Lombard Odier , Investment Strategy Group, April 7, 2011