Macro Observations

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

articles 81-90 / 190		«	page 9 of 19	»

Easing’s Quantitative Analytics

Fed-head Ben Bernanke has started walking back from his June suggestion quantitative easing (QE) might end soon, and investors seem pleased with the U-turn. In our view though, that cheer is rather misplaced. Data show current Fed policy is contractionary for the economy, and in our view, its eventual end should be bullish for stocks.
Fisher Investments, July 12, 2013 , By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

Central Bank Asset Purchases and Financial Markets

Interesting comments and charts from an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
Bank of England, Speech, June 26th, 2013 , Speech given by David Miles

Deflationary Boom?

The defining feature of the present market and economic environment is incompatibility, juxtaposing weakness in emerging markets, materials, and inflation-protected securities with strength in equities and the U.S. dollar, a spike in interest rates, and an unusually steep yield curve in Treasury securities. The underlying thesis here couples a theme of deflation with a theme of robust economic strength. Taken together, the financial markets have priced a wide range of assets on the assumption that the U.S. is on the verge of a deflationary boom. Most likely, part of this scenario is wrong.
Hussman Funds, July 8, 2013 , John P. Hussman, Ph.D

Low Inflation in a World of Securitization

"Weak lending may still be the culprit behind low inflation, but monetary aggregates may no longer closely track credit conditions."
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 15 , Brett W. Fawley and Yi Wen

The Status of the U.S. Economy and a Perspective on 'The Modern Monetarism' (With Reference to Sheila Copps, Thomas Jefferson, Paul Volcker and William Shakespeare)

A superb analysis on the state of the US economy, with Richard Fisher's usual eloquent mix of humour, intelligence and unexpected references, all wrapped in a clear and understandable style.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, June 4, 2013 , Richard W. Fisher

Tricky (Central) Bank Predicaments

Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the central bank would maintain its pace of quantitative easing (QE) in light of moderate improvement in US economic activity. However, as we’ve detailed many times before, we view the Fed’s QE policy moves as grossly counterproductive to its stated aims.
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, May 3, 2013

Reinhart and Rogoff Were Wrong Even Without the 'Spreadsheet Error'

"When governments spend with abandon (deficits just a form of finance) there's a smaller capital base for the productive to access, so when it comes to government spending the tragedy is not whether it occurs in deficit or surplus, but the Microsofts and Intels, the cancer cures, and the transportation innovations that never materialize thanks to politicians consuming so much capital."
RealClearMarkets, April 2013 , John Tamny

France Is On The Brink of A Secondary Depression

"...The rigid design of the euro system means the whole eurozone is prone to the kind of brutal cyclical adjustments seen in that hard money era of the 19th and early 20th centuries. But having reached the logical limits of its decades long experiment in state-run welfare-capitalism France is far more exposed than even its struggling neighbors."
GaveKal, April 2013 , Charles Gave

Financial Repression in North Korea

The price of rice has increased by roughly 28,500% over the last three years, while the North Korean Won currency is in a free fall. Sounds familiar?
Investments Office, April 2013

Reindustrialisation Risk

"Most see the prospect of America reindustrialising as bullish. In my view, that depends on whether you are an economist or whether you are an investor."
Morgan Stanley, April 3, 2013 , Gerard Minack