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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

The Collapse In Global Trade Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
The value of world trade fell in 2015 for the first time since the crisis. However, this reversal was not in trade, but in the dollar price of goods sold for export abroad.

 

World Trade

 

 

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

 

Refresh the chart in your browser | Edit chart in Datastream

 

As our chart shows, the US dollar value of world trade has fallen over the past year or so, though by much less than it fell through the crisis. And the fact that the decline coincided with a collapse in the US dollar price of crude oil tells us much about its cause. Measured in volume terms, world trade has continued to grow steadily. What is undeniably true is that the pace of growth in world trade has slowed since the financial crisis. And more recently, demand from emerging markets appears to have stalled. This should not come as a great surprise, given that China’s slowdown, together with the resulting falls in commodities prices, is putting severe pressure on many of these economies. But this weakness is confined to developing economies. Indeed in 2015, import growth in advanced economies was the strongest since the bounce back in 2010.

 


 

 

Fathom Consulting, Chart Of The Week, February 29, 2016

29.02.2016


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
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Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

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Current Account

Deflation
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Equity
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U.S.A.
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