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   Investment Thoughts - Macro Observations

The Economic Cycle Is Maturing but Still Has Room to Run
The current economic expansion, now over 70 months old, is entering its mature phase, having already exceeded the average length of prior cycles of 57 months. However,

 

there still could be significant room left to run, as the past three cycles have been longer than normal, averaging 94 months. Additionally, growth has been abnormally sluggish in this recovery, suggesting the expansion may have more headroom than is typically the case at this point in the cycle.

 

 

Real GDP in Economic Expansions

 

 

 

Source: Haver Analytics, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 1Q2015.

 

Original Report

 

 

Guggenheim Partners, May 08, 2015-Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO

08.05.2015


 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield