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Swiss Exchange Rate Policy in the 1930s. Was the Delay in Devaluation Too High a Price to Pay for Conservatism? |
In this paper we examine the experience of Switzerland’s devaluation in 1936. The Swiss case is of interest because Switzerland was a key member of the gold bloc, and much of the modern academic literature on the Great Depression tries to explain why Switzerland and the other gold bloc countries, France, and the Netherlands, remained on the gold standard until the bitter end. We ask the following questions: what were the issues at stake in the political debate?
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Abstract
Excerpts
1. Introduction
2. Economic Background
3. Political Economy
4. Historical Narrative
Abstract
In this paper we examine the experience of Switzerland’s devaluation in 1936. The Swiss case is of interest because Switzerland was a key member of the gold bloc, and much of the modern academic literature on the Great Depression tries to explain why Switzerland and the other gold bloc countries, France, and the Netherlands, remained on the gold standard until the bitter end. We ask the following questions: what were the issues at stake in the political debate?
What was the cost to Switzerland of the delay in the franc devaluation? What would have been the costs and benefits of an earlier exchange rate policy? More specifically, what would have happened if Switzerland had either joined the British and devalued in September 1931, or followed the United States in April 1933? To answer these questions we construct a simple open economy macro model of the interwar Swiss economy.
On the basis of this model we then posit counterfactual scenarios of alternative exchange rate pegs in 1931 and 1933. Our simulations clearly show a significant and large increase in real economic activity. If Switzerland had devalued with Britain in 1931, the output level in 1935 would have been some 18 per cent higher than it actually was in that year. If Switzerland had waited until 1933 to devalue, the improvement would have been about 15 per cent higher. The reasons Switzerland did not devalue earlier reflected in part a conservatism in policy making as a result of the difficulty of making exchange rate policy in a democratic setting and in part the consequence of a political economy which favored the fractionalization of different interest groups.
Excerpts
1. Introduction
2. Economic Background
3. Political Economy
4. Historical Narrative
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NBER Working Paper No. 12491, August 2006-Michael Bordo, Thomas Helbling and Harold James
09.11.2012
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Themes
Asia
Bonds
Bubbles and Crashes
Business Cycles Central Banks
China
Commodities Contrarian
Corporates
Creative Destruction Credit Crunch
Currencies
Current Account
Deflation Depression
Equity Europe Financial Crisis Fiscal Policy
Germany
Gloom and Doom Gold
Government Debt
Historical Patterns
Household Debt Inflation
Interest Rates
Japan
Market Timing
Misperceptions
Monetary Policy Oil Panics Permabears PIIGS Predictions
Productivity Real Estate
Seasonality
Sovereign Bonds Systemic Risk
Switzerland
Tail Risk
Technology
Tipping Point Trade Balance
U.S.A. Uncertainty
Valuations
Yield
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