Macro Observations

Investment Office

Selecting relevant market observations

Investment Thoughts

Macro Observations

Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics

articles 141-150 / 190		«	page 15 of 19	»

Proposals Concerning the Current Financial Crisis

"Congress should instruct Fannie Mae that the safety of the financial system must take priority over the objective of providing low-income housing."
Financial Analysts Journal, January/February 2009, Vol. 65, No. 1 , Harry M. Markowitz

The Financial Crisis and Platform Companies

A new business model has emerged whereby companies increasingly focus on the processes in which they have the most value-added and outsource the rest. (....) The evidence suggests that, far from being the beginning of the end for the platform model, it is merely the end of the beginning.
GaveKal, January 2009

Chronicle of a decline foretold

Excellent summary about the great turn of events in 2008 that may have, above all, benefited the U.S: "Here was the irony at the heart of the crisis. In all kinds of ways, the Great Repression had "Made in America" stamped all over it. Yet its effects were more severe in the rest of the world than in the US. And, as a consequence, the US managed to retain its "safe haven" status. The worse things got elsewhere, the more readily investors bought Treasuries and held dollars."
FT, December 27 2008 , Niall Ferguson

America’s Lost Decade?

The Fed’s recent rate cut and announced policy of quantitative easing is causing some to compare the US now to Japan in the 1990s—we’re not so sure.
Fisher Investments Market Minder, 19/12/2008 , Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

As the World gets bigger, it seemingly becomes ever more volatile.

Is a Global economy inherently more unstable? Not per se, but the truth is that as it gets bigger and richer, the World becomes more financial.
Crossborder Capital, December 2008

Turning on the Money Taps: Surging Liquidity Supply Meets a Massive Jump in Cash Demand

There is little question that we are in a Japan-like World of near -zero interest rates and ‘quantitative easing’ of liquidity by Central Banks. A separate question is whether we are also necessarily in a Japan-like World of falling consumer prices, weak economic activity and volatile asset markets? Or worse, a US-like 1930s Depression? We believe neither.
Crossborder Capital, December 2008

The Velocity Factor

When most of us think of the velocity of money, we think of how fast it goes through our hands. I know at the Mauldin household, with seven kids, it seems like something is always coming up. And with Christmas looming, the velocity, at least in terms of how fast money seems to go out the door, seems faster than normal.
Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter, December 5, 2008 , John Mauldin

Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ wasn’t that bad.

"There have been so many references to the ‘Lost Decade’ in Japan. It may be useful to recall how bad the macro conditions were during that period."
Stephen Jen , Morgan Stanley, Currency Economics, My Thoughts on Currencies, December 1, 2008

Crouching Tigers

For a region whose business model - broadly speaking - relies on buying ever more expensive materials to sell goods to a slowing world, Asia's earnings forecasts look surprisingly perky.
Financial Times, July 17 2008

Dates, Credit and Inflation

"Date prices have taken a quantum leap and this delicious and nutritious staple is now costlier by about 1,000 percent. Farmers and date traders in Madina predict an imminent crisis in the business." Meanwhile...in the UAE: "Loans to individuals in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter surged almost 40 percent in 2007. They have almost doubled over the last four years, during which time oil prices have surged, helping drive economic growth and borrowing."
Saudi Gazette, Reuters, June 22, 2008