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   Investment Thoughts - Archives



2014 Observations






Everything from this 1991 Radio Shack ad I now do with my phone
"There are 15 electronic gimzo type items on this page, being sold from America's Technology Store. 13 of the 15 you now always have in your pocket."

Trending Buffalo, Steve Cichon, January 14, 2014


The World’s First Bear Market
"By our count, there have been 25 bear markets in the United States since 1792 and 28 bear markets in the United Kingdom since 1692."
Global Financial Data, Dr. Bryan Taylor, October 2014

The House of Nomura
"Perhaps more interesting is the glimpse into the business world of Meiji, Taisho, and Showa before WWII. What's clear is that Japan had Prussian institutions but an Anglo approach to corporate governance."
Daily Speculations, Weston Minami, October 21, 2014






Pension Funds Switzerland

2014 Edition



for institutional investors only





Did Eonia just end the ECB's Recovery Fiction?
"Despite nearly all outward appearances, Japan and Europe have far more in common than differences, at least where it counts."
Alhambra Investment Partners, August 29, 2014


Narrative myth
"In early 2009 the financial press was dumping praise on any mutual fund manager who had evaded a bulk of the stock market decline."
Bason Asset Management, James Osborne, August 28, 2014

The Career Paths of Mutual Fund Managers: The Role of Merit
Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 2014




on the Fly


"Let me cut to the chase: I am increasingly concerned about the risks of our current monetary policy. (...) Our duty as the nation's central bank is not to engineer a "put" to the markets."

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard W. Fisher, July 16, 2014



Exchange rate adjustment, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in Japan's escape from the Great Depression
Explorations in Economic History,  July 2014


August 1914: When Global Stock Markets Closed
Only after the fall of Communism did stock markets become as globally integrated as they had been before 1914.
Global Financial Data, Bryan Taylor, July 30, 2014


The Fed Wants to Be Behind the Curve
Federal Reserve, Yield Curve, Macro, Early Warning Indicator
Quote, Bianco Research, James Bianco on Bloomberg, July 24, 2014


Average Stock Market Returns Aren’t Average
The average investor in the stock market will earn less than the average stock market return–this is true even without taking into account any behavioral biases.
MarginalRevolution, Alex Tabarrok, July 11, 2014


Remarks in Honor of Korekiyo Takahashi, Governor of the Bank of Japan, Finance Minister, and Prime Minister in the 1930s
"The key to the Takahashi Economic Policy's success was a shift in economic policymaking from the deflationary regime of Inoue to the reflationary one of Takahashi."
Bank of Japan, Kikuo Iwata, October 2013


Like A Stealth Bomber
"What if inflation is actually surging and the traditional methods of measuring it are just not capable of capturing the rise".
Lobnek Wealth Management, Altug Ulkumen, July 2014


Nasdaq Getting Closer and Closer
"After the dot-com bubble burst, many investors thought the Nasdaq may never get back to its all-time highs from March 2000."
Bespoke Investment Group, July 3, 2014


Central Banks Chart a Course for Overheating
When bull markets mature, investors fear a coming crisis. Today there are plenty of candidates from Europe to China to Thailand. But bull markets climb a wall of worry and there are reasons now not to expect a looming crisis.
Guggenheim Partners, Market Perspectives, Scott Minerd, June 2014


International Overview: Some Struggle, Some Stabilize, Some Move Ahead
U.S., Global Economy, Central Banks, Unemployment, Recession, Monetary Policy
Quote, Wells Fargo Securities, Monthly Outlook, June 11, 2014




on the Fly


“With patient investors in short supply, we have always felt that we face less competition when making longer term commitments.(...) Prices are often more inefficient where crowds are small."

Tweedy, Browne Annual Report, 31.03.2014



Higher Yet and Perhaps Faster
Equity, Bonds, Valuations, Treasury Yield, Dividend Yield, Valuations
Excerpts, Daily Speculations, Gary Phillips, May 31, 2014


Asset Allocation: Risk Models for Alternative Investments
Financial Analyst Journal, May/June 2014


Wild Swings
U.S., Volatility, Misperception
Quote , BespokeInvest, May 30, 2014


The Mythical Third Arrow
Japan, Fiscal Policy, Negative View
Take, Fisher Investments Editorial, May 28, 2014


Profit Margins to Head Lower, Equities to Suffer

“Profit margins in the US have hit modern-day record levels, and this has been used to help justify high equity valuations.“
Chart, Excerpt, U.S., Equity, Negative View , Variant Perception, May 22 2014 



Strength in Aggregate Demand: Virtuous Cycle
Asset Allocation, Macro, U.S., Positive Outlook
Excerpts, Wells Fargo Securities, Monthly Outlook, May 7th 2014

Focus Germany, So far, so good
Germany, Credit Cycle, Early Warning Indicator
Excerpts, Deutsche Bank Research, Current Issues, May 2 2014


A Disappearing act: impact of tighter financial conditions
Bonds, Equity, Global, Market Timing, Volatility, Early Warning Indicator
Excerpts, BlackRock Investment Institute, May 2014

Labor strikes in China: shifting demographics & economic rebalancing
China, Macro, Negative View
Excerpts, Loomis Sayles, May 2014

Emerging markets: time to differentiate
Excerpts, Lombard Odier, Investment Strategy Bulletin, May 2014


The Benefits of Periodic Cash in Equity Portfolios
Cash, Market Timing, Cautious Outlook
Quote, Southeastern Asset Management, April 2014




on the Fly



“GDP  has increased by just $2.2 trillion since 2008, despite a $7.3 trillion increase in U.S. government debt since 2008, part of which funded a more than $3 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet. This poor return on investment isn't new; it's just getting worse." Steven Romick, Nedgroup Investments, April 2014



Elections and directions in emerging markets. An entry point amid election concerns?
Emerging Markets, Macro, Contrarian, Positive View
Take, Loomis Sayles, April 2014


Germany: A land of milk and honey?
Germany, Food for Thought, Early Warning Indicator
Quote, Deutsche Bank Research, Talking point, April 30, 2014

Why is no one cheering the falling deficit?
U.S., Budget Deficit, Misperception
CNBC, Ron Insana, April 16, 2014






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