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Macro Observations
Analysis, Ideas and Reflections on Macroeconomic Topics
articles 21-30 / 190 |
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page 3 of 19
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Shallower Cycles?
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"Less vigorous expansions spread over longer periods would entail a fundamental change in the risk/return dynamics of markets and a resulting shift in expectations."
Lobnek Wealth Management, February 2019 , Altug Ulkumen
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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try
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The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.
Alhambra Investment Partners, December 7, 2018 , Jeffrey P. Snider
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Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
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It's well known that in the United States recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for this?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Synopses, No. 30, 2018 , David Andolfatto, Andrew Spewak
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The history (and future) of inflation ...
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It may not feel like it, but we live in inflationary times relative to long-term history.
Deutsche Bank, Thematic Research, September 19, 2018 , Jim Reid, Craig Nicol, Nick Burns, Sahil Mahtani
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Notes on The Bitcoin Standard
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"Bitcoin, as designed, is deflationary."
Man on the Margin, July 16, 2018 , Michael Kendall
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The Oxymoron of World Trade
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Oxymorons are powerful combinations of contradictory meanings. We encounter oxymorons in every human form of expression attempting a description of reality, whether it be in works of tragedy (“fearful bravery” in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar), in our daily lives (work that is “almost done”), or even in the projected future of human societies (“artificial intelligence”).
Gavekal Intelligence Software, The Quant Corner, September 2018 , Didier Darcet
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Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions
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"Furthermore, when interpreting the yield curve evidence, one should keep in mind the adage “correlation is not causation.”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Economic Letter, August 27, 2018 , Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens
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A monopoly on liquidity
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"The board game Monopoly® was originally invented by Elizabeth Magie, under the name “The Landlord’s Game”, as a means of demonstrating the evils of rentier capitalism. Originally, there were two sets of rules — essentially, socialism (where the rewards for development were shared by all) and capitalism (where the rewards accrue to the monopolist, who crushes all opponents) — the purpose being to show the moral superiority of the first set."
Fathom Consulting, Thank Fathom it's Friday, 16 March 2018 , Erik Britton
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Lonely Bytes – Cryptocurrencies & The Future of Money:
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A New Technology Solution Desperately Seeking A Problem?
CrossBorder Capital, March 13, 2018 , Michael Howell
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The Questions for the Coming Year
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"As Charles has shown over the years, this is the best combination for equity markets, as tight fiscal policy and loose money almost invariably leads to far higher P/E ratios. Alas, the opposite is true for the reverse: loose fiscal policy and tight money typically trigger a de-rating of equity markets. And this is the policy mix we seem to be heading towards."
Gavekal Research, December 15, 2017 , Louis-Vincent Gave
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Themes
Asia
Bonds
Bubbles and Crashes
Business Cycles Central Banks
China
Commodities Contrarian
Corporates
Creative Destruction Credit Crunch
Currencies
Current Account
Deflation Depression
Equity Europe Financial Crisis Fiscal Policy
Germany
Gloom and Doom Gold
Government Debt
Historical Patterns
Household Debt Inflation
Interest Rates
Japan
Market Timing
Misperceptions
Monetary Policy Oil Panics Permabears PIIGS Predictions
Productivity Real Estate
Seasonality
Sovereign Bonds Systemic Risk
Switzerland
Tail Risk
Technology
Tipping Point Trade Balance
U.S.A. Uncertainty
Valuations
Yield
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